Ignore the exit polls

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Nov 4: Ignore the exit polls

The excellent poll analysis site FiveThirtyEight gives 10 reasons to ignore the exit polls tonight.

Ten Reasons Why You Should Ignore Exit Polls

These include the fact that exit polls have a larger margin of error than regular polls, they tend to overstate the Democrats' share of the vote, and they miss early and late voters. But my favorite reason is #10:

10. You'll know the actual results soon enough anyway. Have patience, my friends, and consider yourselves lucky: in France, it is illegal to conduct a poll of any kind within 48 hours of the election. But exit polls are really more trouble than they're worth, at least as a predictive tool. An independent panel created by CNN in the wake of the Florida disaster in 2000 recommended that the network completely ignore exit polls when calling particular states. I suggest that you do the same.
Posted by ben in Government and Politics on 11/04/08 15:45 | Comments (2) | Trackbacks (0)

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I always felt sorry for the voters in Hawaii. The networks have usually called the election before they even get a chance to vote. I'll just be glad when it's over.
#1 Shaneen (Homepage) on 2008-11-04 21:09 (Reply)
I hate the exit polls! I never thought I'd admonish following France's lead on anything, but in this regard it would be nice.

BTW, did you carve a pumpkin?
#2 booklogged (Homepage) on 2008-11-04 22:47 (Reply)

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